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  • 25 First Dates 25 May 2009
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  • Finding Your Soul Mate: A Statistical Analysis 27 Jan 2009
  • Sex and Schrodinger's Cat 07 January 2009
  • An Extended Rant on Heroes 26 September 2008
  • Zero Barrier 05 May 2008
  • Sweatshop Blogging Economics 08 April 2008
  • The Doomsday Singularity 25 February 2008
  • Piracy and Its Impact on Philippine Music 21 January 2008
  • The Manila Pen-etration by the Hotelier Antonio Trillanes 29 November 2007
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    guttervomit

    • 67

      Finding Your Soul Mate: A Statistical Analysis

      27 Jan 2009

      I’ve been thinking recently about soul mates and the chances of finding that soul mate. Why have I been thinking about this? Because I drink too much every night and wake up every morning with a dry throat and a dull headache, and thus cannot bring myself to start working until after several hours of staring blankly into space. But I digress. This piece is an attempt at quantifying the odds of finding that special somone, and contains some thoughts regarding how to increase those odds further.

      Now, the first step is of course believing that your soul mate exists. I know a lot of people don’t believe that everyone has a soul mate, but for the purposes of this article, let’s just ignore them.

      The tricky thing about this whole discussion is that the cosmos never bothered to lay down any ground rules regarding soul mates, so we’re unfortunately stuck making a bunch of assumptions. Here are the ones that I’m basing my calculations on:

      1. Your soul mate exists, and is currently alive somewhere in the world. I’m not going to waste time calculating the odds of meeting a soul mate who was alive B.C., or will be born around the time the flying car goes mainstream. We’re going to assume that the cosmos was considerate enough to give you a fighting chance after all.

      2. Your soul mate is of the preferred sexual orientation. This whole discussion would be pointless otherwise.

      3. Your soul mate speaks at least one of the languages that you do. Again, it would be otherwise impossible to connect with your soul mate if you can’t speak a common language.

      (Nota Bene: If you disagree with any of the items above, tough luck. I’m not doing your math for you.)

      Given those three assumptions, you can compute the maximum number of potential soul mate candidates simply by multiplying the population of your chosen language by the percentage of your preferred sexual orientation. Let’s call this your Personal Soul Mate Index.

      For example, my chosen language is English (1.5 billion native and non-native speakers) and my preferred sexual orientation is straight female. The global gender ratio is about 51:49 in favor of men, so I multiply 1.5 billion by 0.49, which would be roughly 735,000,000. I would then reduce that number further by 2% to get my PSMI (which is the alleged gay ratio), leaving me with 720,300,000 straight English-speaking females. If you were a gay male, you would multiply 1.5 billion by 0.51 and then again by 0.02, giving you a much smaller PSMI, at only 15.3 million.

      (Note that you could also choose to totally ignore the language part of the equation and simply multiply your sexual orientation by the total global population, which is at 6.7 billion at the time of this writing.)

      I’ll give you a moment to compute your own PSMIs.

      All good? Great, let’s move on to the fun stuff.

      So, the likelihood of me meeting my soulmate is roughly 1 in 720,000,000, and what we’re going to do over the next few paragraphs is work out just how “likely” that is. I’m a 27-year-old Filipino, and have a life expectancy of 71 years. That means I’ve got a potential for 44 more years of searching for that darned soul mate of mine. Let’s be more granular, and calculate how many days that is:

      (365 days * 33 common years) + (366 days * 11 leap years) = 16,071 days to go

      Let’s tack on the past 9 years of my life as well, or since I turned 18, i.e., legally capable of having sex with my soul mate should I meet her. (And if that sounds a little crass, I apologize. I’m sure you would simply lose yourself in your soul mate’s eyes forever.)

      16071 + ((365 * 7) + (366 * 2)) = 19,358 days in total

      We can express all of this very simply by saying that if I want to meet my soul mate and I am unlucky enough to have had to meet every single person in my entire PSMI before I finally meet her, I would have to see 720,300,000 people over 19,358 days starting when I turned 18. (37,209 people per day, or about half of the people who went to the Eraserheads concert last year.)

      Does that sound discouraging? Let’s do some quick math to work out the problem.

      I’m sitting at a Starbucks as I write this, and there are easily 30 other people in and around this place with me. I’ll walk back to the office and there are another 60 people there. Later tonight I’ll have dinner at the Fort, and will come into indirect contact with about 100 or so different people. If I were commuting, I’d get on to a train car with 50 other people all mashed up against each other.

      Depending on how much you move around, you come in to indirect contact with about 150-200 unique people every day. Possibly even more than that if you really pound the pavement. That means that without drastically changing my lifestyle, I will see about 3,871,600 people over the course of my life or about 0.5% of my PSMI. Expressed in more practical terms, my chances of finding my soul mate at any point in my post-18 life is about 1 in 200. If you play Texas Hold ‘Em, this is roughly the same odds as being dealt pocket aces (220:1). (Interestingly enough, I’ve been dealt pocket aces about half a dozen times at Hold ‘Em that I can remember.)

      Is that depressing? Yeah, a little bit. 20 years ago, that would be pretty much all she wrote too. But these days we’re fortunate enough to have a way to connect with thousands more at any given moment, i.e., the internets. I’ve got about , about and have built a handful of little web toys that thousands of people use every day. Your own numbers will be drastically different of course, but the point is that we’re able to cheat the odds by making ourselves really visible online. In fact, if I assume that my soul mate is a straight female who speaks English and has Internet access, my PSMI is reduced even further. There are 1.4 billion people on the Internet, 430.8 million of which speak English, and 206.8 million of which are probably straight females. Now my chances are about 58:1, which in Hold ‘Em terms is roughly the odds that you would get a pair of aces, kings, queens or jacks in your pocket (54.3:1). If all that sounds a little fanciful, it’s really not. I mean seriously, what kind of cosmos would give me a soul mate that didn’t use the Internet? That would just be cruel. (Or for that matter, didn’t subscribe to poker hand probabilities.)

      One way to look at the 58:1 ratio is thusly: if I had 58 times to relive my life, I would cross paths with my soul mate once. That sounds incredibly sad, so here’s another way to look at it: if you took 58 other guys with similar soul-mate indices as me, only one of us would find our soul mate. I like the sound of that a little bit more, but I’m not entirely sure it’s the right way to look at the numbers. Anyway.

      The trick here really is to make yourself as visible as possible online so as to reach as many people as possible. Joining social networks and generating online content is the new-school equivalent of taking yoga classes or joining photography clubs in order to meet new people, and it’s a lot more cost-effective too. The idea of course is not to stop looking. Just because the odds seem stacked against you, doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. After all, according to the Drake equation, the number of other currently-existing civilizations in our entire galaxy could be as little as 2, and yet we still train our telescopes at the sky every night, waiting.

      67 Responses to “Finding Your Soul Mate: A Statistical Analysis”

      1. Claire Says:
        January 27th, 2009 at 3:13 pm

        Bottom line is… Don’t take life seriously. Finding one’s soul mate is the least of our worries. But this mathematical approach cuts out the guesswork from the mystical kismet and romantic destiny churva.

      2. luis Says:
        January 27th, 2009 at 4:53 pm

        Claire:

        Hehe, I’m not sure if “don’t take life seriously” is the advice I would give to a lot of people. There’s a happy medium between taking stuff too seriously and just being completely detached about everything, I think. Ideally, we’d give things just enough thought to ensure that we’re not acting like idiots, but not so much thought that we’d end up acting like existential idiots.

      3. Jon Limjap Says:
        January 27th, 2009 at 8:32 pm

        LOL. The concept of a soulmate is so ethereal and non-deterministic that I am kinda amused you went so far as to trying to calculate it. :P

      4. Luna Says:
        January 27th, 2009 at 9:52 pm

        I always tell people, “It’s fucking rare to like someone, who will like you, at the exact same time.” Thanks for providing the math ;)

      5. lemon Says:
        January 27th, 2009 at 11:22 pm

        Will the formula change at all if you take into account that your soulmate is supposed to be looking for you as well?

      6. heidelicious Says:
        January 28th, 2009 at 1:17 am

        i’ve always believed that numbers are the primary source of inevitable worries in our daily lives..as in time, money, taxes, metered taxi fare, calories, waist line, hits, unique visitors, etc. that’s why i’ve always been thankful, too, that there are no numbers involved in love (or finding your soul mate, for that matter)..

        and then there’s your very interesting formula! :-)

      7. j4s0n Says:
        January 28th, 2009 at 7:31 am

        Wow, that sounds like the “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon”!

      8. luis Says:
        January 28th, 2009 at 10:57 am

        “Will the formula change at all if you take into account that your soulmate is supposed to be looking for you as well?”

        I verified this with some friends who have allegedly stronger math skills than me, and the answer was no. The reason was that even if you are eliminating candidates at the same time, neither of you are aware of which candidates the other has eliminated. If there were a way to inform your soul mate which people you had already met and rejected, then yes, there would be an effect. On the other hand, if you had the ability to inform them of your activities then this whole calculation would be pointless wouldn’t it? :P

      9. kangel Says:
        January 30th, 2009 at 8:48 pm

        You’re unbelievable. You spend that time to think of that formula.. :) You’re one heck o math genius.

        I also believe that there is the one (uhm soulmate). I’m also looking for him. But everybody can be a candidate. Just know what you want and believe you will have it.

        Nice article :)

      10. Krupskaya Anonuevo Says:
        January 31st, 2009 at 12:28 am

        Hi Luis! K(rupskaya Anonuevo) here (UPIS, batch ‘97). I was just with Therese an hour ago and (of course, haha) your name was mentioned at some point.

        So, with Therese’s track-him-down prodding, I google you.

        And I find your piece on finding one’s soulmate.

        Have you read Alain de Botton’s Essays in Love? It begins with the main character’s computation of the probability of him meeting Chloe, this girl he falls in love with. The improbability of it all leads him to conclude that meeting Chloe was a preordained thing.

        Not a big fan of the concept of destiny (&soulmates, for that matter), but the novel has cool diagrams and fun references.

        My point? That there are usually diamonds amidst soulmate drivel.

        I like how you highlighted how the www increases connections/interactions, thus increasing the probability of finding someone like-minded and sexy :).

        K

        P.S. Why the website name?

      11. Luis Says:
        January 31st, 2009 at 5:04 pm

        Hi K! I’m not even gonna ask exactly how my name came up in that conversation :P thankfully I’m easy enough to find online (I have to take my own advice after all). Thanks for the book reco, I’ll get around to that after I finish off these economics books currently crowding my desk.

      12. Mia Says:
        February 1st, 2009 at 9:07 pm

        Haha, I love this post! It would be fun to think of ways to refine the model, too.

        As for myself… I will either a) hope that my soulmate is very, very good at tracking people down (not very unlikely, considering who I am and thus what kind of person my soulmate would probably be) or b) not bother hoping and just distract myself by writing about straight men who can talk about physics, literature, and art with equal ease.

        Or c) — disbelieve in the concept, but where’s the fun in that?

      13. luis Says:
        February 2nd, 2009 at 2:18 pm

        “c) — disbelieve in the concept, but where’s the fun in that?”

        Yeah, exactly :) As long as you don’t hold your breath waiting for that One Magic Moment where you and your soul mate cross paths, the theory itself is lots of fun to think about.

      14. guttervomit | a collection of stuff by luis buenaventura » On Being Lone.ly Says:
        April 7th, 2009 at 10:45 am

        [...] Finding Your Soul Mate: A Statistical Analysis 27 Jan 2009 [...]

      15. BetmoPoker Blog Says:
        May 18th, 2009 at 2:50 am

        Thanks for a great blog! Checkout my blog if you like. I log all my Poker Session there, give some feedback if you want/can. Keep up the blogging!

      16. Says:
        July 8th, 2009 at 1:03 am

        First off, I enjoyed reading this because I love numbers. :) Second, I think instead of counting your chances of meeting your soulmate, you should focus on the encounters that has the most impact to you (example is your tweet about meeting someone with a single fang like you). That’s all. Great piece. :)

      17. Super-b Says:
        July 9th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

        Wow, just diggin some old posts and i’m stuck on this one. maybe someone should make a soulmate calculator or soulmate finder using any big social network. there should be enough fields on the questionnaire so the search can return nearly accurate results… or keywords on a likes and dislikes manner, with some words already on database and a blank field to add more keywords…

        should be cool!

      18. luis Says:
        July 11th, 2009 at 1:21 pm

        Vikki, glad you enjoyed it! I think I do both, life is more fun when you look at both the big picture and the little details with equal attention.

        Super-b, we’re actually working on something kinda like that right now :)

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      38. kae Says:
        October 22nd, 2009 at 5:15 am

        maybe it is me… =p

      39. Marlowe Says:
        October 25th, 2009 at 10:04 pm

        Congratulation on your Best Post of the Year award! I must agree that this post is well written, well researched, and well computed. But for the sake of an argument, if you really believe in Soul Mate, don’t you think the ratio should actually be 1:1? If you’re soulmates, that means your destined to be with each other. You don’t even need to analyze the odds of meeting her/him. The real factor is not IF but WHEN? Anyway, I’m just glad I had found mine! Watch out for my blog Proud To Be Pinoy on next year’s Philippine Blog Awards… lol.

      40. pinoyatheart Says:
        December 27th, 2009 at 4:55 am

        I read half of your post. From a mathematical standpoint, you failed to calculate your financial status into the equation. This is a major flaw in your equation. Having visited the Philppines many times, I’ve discovered that one’s level of wealth is directly proportionate to finding a soul mate there. lol. I’m middle-aged, but well educated and very moral–and well-off financially…and many, many young and attractive Filipinas have proclaimed to me that they were my soul-mates on my business trips there. :0)

      41. ija Says:
        February 3rd, 2010 at 7:32 am

        man im already a fan. great article by the way. i agree with us being in that fine line of being not an idiot and being not an existential idiot.

      42. Things I Learned the Past Week « strangelove addictions Says:
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        [...] prospect of meeting my soul mate, is near impossible. As referenced by this article here. See the calculations. Therefore, I’m giving up the fight now, thank you. Perhaps I will resume [...]

      43. Rand Al Thor Says:
        February 19th, 2010 at 4:37 pm

        Hey! Thanks for posting this. Kahit medyo late ko na ata nabasa. Somebody from Fizzer.ph just pointed this out to me. Very interesting take on the soul mate thing.

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      45. Bernie Says:
        March 26th, 2010 at 3:44 pm

        Postings on this website suggest that in the whole world there is just one soulmate for every person. That is, there is “The One” who is being looked for by the other person. If this were the case then the chances that those two persons would even live in the same country are remote. Taking the whole world, the chances of two soulmates ever meeting are so infinitesimally small as to be practically non-existent. It would be so rare that it would almost never happen and thus humankind would never even learn about even the possibility of a soulmate.

        However even in small cities of thirty or forty thousand persons there are people who often meet their soulmates, fall in love, and spend the rest of their lives together. This would suggest that the chances of meeting a soulmate are somewhat better than what the odds seem to be at first glance. Therefore I would promulgate that there is some other factor is at work other than an almost zero chance.

        It seems to me that rather than just one soulmate existing in the world, there are thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, or even millions of them for each person. Not that a single person could ever hope to meet more than one or two or three but that is all that is needed. The logic behind this is that there are only a finite number of personality types in the world. One of those types will be your soulmate and this larger number would greatly increase your chances of meeting one of those persons. There is a very good chance that the person will speak the same language as you, live in the same country or city as you do, and be of the sex that is being looked for. When you meet that person he/she becomes “The One” and thus excludes all others and you have found your soulmate.

        In this scenario then, what are the chances of meeting your soulmate? It depends. Some jobs or lifestyles allow someone to meet more people; some jobs and lifestyles less. But in any case the average person in a lifetime will probably only ever actually meet a few thousand other people and half of those will be the wrong sex. Many others will be met at an unsuitable time either in the life of the seeker or the person met. Therefore the potential pool of prospects is not very large. But, none the less, if there are millions of your soulmates out there then you do have a reasonably good chance of coming into contact with one. Meeting a soulmate might still be a comparatively rare event but it is millions of times more likely than if you are searching for just one person in the world. I don’t want to get into a mathematical calculation as the results are fairly meaningless but suffice to say this way of approaching the problem gives a chance that is reasonably good and well worth pursuing.

        I think the above explains actual human behaviour rather than the theory of two people seeking each other across the world.

      46. BED Podcast winner at the 2009 Philippine Blog Awards — Brink Notes Podcast Network Says:
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      47. Drew Says:
        May 2nd, 2010 at 3:14 am

        Although I’m from the United States I find it interesting that no matter where you go, everyone is looking for the same thing in love. Stop looking, thats when someone will show up.

      48. Miggy Says:
        June 3rd, 2010 at 6:27 pm

        I was there during last year’s Philippine Blog awards with the my boss and his friend (nominee) to find out if we’ll be bringing home the bacon that night.

        when I have first heard about your Blog title I was instantly interested and immediately promised myself that I’m going to read it up soon. but life got busy so soon became very very late.

        But now after months of delaying this, I have finally read it. And I really found it interesting!!!!

        Thank you for blogging!!!

      49. Love and Mathematics: It is Wrong to Assume That There are Millions of Fish in the Sea « strangelove addictions Says:
        June 21st, 2010 at 11:55 am

        [...] look bad. This is actually a dating ad. loljk Much respect to my friend, Luis, who had previously done a statistical analysis on soulmates. (Hindi ko alam pasintabi sa English, [...]

      50. Babara Dollahite Says:
        June 21st, 2010 at 1:49 pm

        Have you thought about adding some sort of social bookmark buttons aimed at your website? At least you should add one for Digg, which is just about the most important social bookmarking sites, so we can digg you up!

      51. Avon Vita Says:
        October 6th, 2010 at 5:13 am

        What if you’ve already seen and met your soulmate in the past, like in your childhood, but didn’t know it yet? Then you go on with your life living it as you had planned. Fast forward to the future. You see your soulmate again, but this time, you’re both married - with kids. The reconnection brought about the realization that you’re indeed meant for each other. How about that?

      52. Reverse Osmosis : Says:
        November 1st, 2010 at 11:09 am

        dating ads that have pretty women are very catchy ;

      53. Gourdo's Stores Says:
        November 18th, 2010 at 3:21 pm

        i think i really have found my soul mate. she’s my very best friend, we have the same mind all in all together. but i have a wife now and she has her girlfriend. so see not all soul mates end up together as husband and wife. they could also be just best friends forever.

      54. Shower Radio %0A Says:
        November 25th, 2010 at 2:02 pm

        i often see a lot of dating ads on craigslist and also on facebook ;,-

      55. my travel spots Says:
        December 8th, 2010 at 11:02 am

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      56. Pinoy CHefs Says:
        December 17th, 2010 at 3:38 pm

        so true =) but some people only find their soul mates when in a relationship already =(

      57. Terry Boehlar Says:
        January 27th, 2011 at 7:05 pm

        I got a bookmark at this article but I tend not to remember why??Was there another article with this domain? - The computer is a moron. Attributed to Peter Drucker

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      61. Jon Says:
        April 25th, 2011 at 7:50 am

        Eh. Sorry. This post is a total fallacy. First of all the fact you eliminate potential soul mates by gender, sexual orientation and all the rest of your measures is a moot point. Of course those things are factors. But you can walk down any street and meet people who match those based qualifications. However, why would you bother to even look at them twice let alone strike up some sort of communication?

        Furthermore, it is a fallacy to assume your soul mate must speak a certain language or even have any certain characteristics in common with you. Why? Because the definition of a soul mate is one who challenges you. So the first thing you have to do is get that definition straight. It is obtuse to think that merely matching people on characteristics qualifies them in the running. If that were true you would clone yourself, with possibly a slight change to sexual orientation, and voila there you go. So what this whole post leads me to believe is that you’re telling people to go fuck them self.

        A soul mate is not necessarily like you. They might not speak your language, They might not be in the age range you would expect. They might not be of any of the characteristics you would bother to go looking for, and this is probably the real reason why most people never find a soul mate. They aren’t looking for someone to challenge them. They are looking for a replica of themselves.

      62. Danae Beute Says:
        June 23rd, 2011 at 11:54 pm

        me and my husband as far back as i can remember, got settled on one line of defense against bad health. Why? Because I was shocked to find out how badly medication works.

      63. Chris Says:
        July 10th, 2011 at 4:52 pm

        Hi mate,

        I’m from Sri Lanka. was just checking the web to see if other sods like me exist and I happend to come across this article. Nice!

        I could never have done the math stuff you just did…. bottom line is visibility and perseverence huh?

        Take care mate……good stuff

        Check me out on lifeforrent247.wordpress.com (if you wish to)

        :D

        Take care!

        Chris

      64. Halloween Party Decorations UK Says:
        July 23rd, 2011 at 2:32 am

        Cheers. I am always interested in posts and info about website seo. You can’t predict where you will discover a brand new tactic (well, new to me at least). Although there will almost always be general Search engine optimization techniques, a tiny adjustment here and there, and your blog can get significantly better search positions. If you work with WordPress using right plug ins as well as a good premium theme will help your Seo. Additionally it is crucial to keep up to date with the modifications in internet search engine algorithms.All the best

      65. Things I Learned the Past Week | Take Me to the Riot Says:
        August 1st, 2011 at 11:24 pm

        [...] prospect of meeting my soul mate, is near impossible. As referenced by this article here. See the calculations. Therefore, I’m giving up the fight now, thank you. Perhaps I will resume [...]

      66. Crosby Says:
        September 13th, 2011 at 9:08 am

        It’s actually a nice handy piece of info. So i am thankful which you shared this beneficial details along with us. Make sure you keep informed similar to this. Thank you sharing.

      67. Conway Says:
        September 15th, 2011 at 2:13 pm

        This is exactly the knowledge I need to. Thank you writing this posting.

      Leave a Reply

     

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